Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GEFS ensemble forecast of hurricane Ernesto's ET following Bermuda landfall.


Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2025061012 ECMWF: 2025061018
GFS: 2025061618 JMA: 2025061612
NAVGEM: 2025061612 UKMET: 2025061612

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:

No recent NCEP HWRF runs

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:

No recent NCEP HMON runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:

No recent AMSU retrievals

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2025061618 | 2025061612 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2025021712 | 2025021700 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2025061612 | 2025061600 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2025061612 | 2025061512 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2025021712 | 2025021700 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
([email protected])

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
([email protected])

This page last updated: Mon Jun 16 23:54:14 UTC 2025