ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 1995 FELIX CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL- ORGANIZED STORM WITH A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS BECOMING FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED...ALTHOUGH IMPEDED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CENTRAL FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL-DEFINED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM NHC METEOROLOGISTS ARE A STRONG T2.5. CURRENT WIND ESTIMATE IS 40 KNOTS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FELIX LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION... WITH WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGESTING WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. CURRENTLY FELIX IS OVER 26 TO 27 DEG SST WATERS. THE STORM SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING SSTS CLOSE TO 28 DEG C IN 48 HOURS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS JUST NORTH OF WEST...285/19. THE SWIFT FORWARD MOTION INDICATES A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS REGIME WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 16.1N 39.2W 40 KTS 12HR VT 09/1200Z 16.8N 42.0W 45 KTS 24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.7N 45.5W 50 KTS 36HR VT 10/1200Z 18.7N 49.0W 55 KTS 48HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 52.0W 60 KTS 72HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 57.0W 70 KTS NNNN