ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 12 1995 NEXT RECON NOT UNTIL ABOUT 12Z. SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST FELIX COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN WHEN THE PLANE WAS THERE BEFORE. PICTURES ALSO REVEAL A CONCENTRIC TYPE EYEWALL PATTERN AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION. EYE REMAINS DISTINCT. OUTFLOW IS BEST IN NE SEMICIRCLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/14 KT. MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING OFF U.S. EAST COAST AND PICK UP DISTURBANCE TO NW OF FELIX. THAT CYCLONIC ENSEMBLE HELPS PULL FELIX NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS...BUT THEN MAY LEAVE THE HURRICANE BEHIND. STRENGTH AND DURATION OF FOLLOWING RIDGE TO BE A KEY IN DETERMINING ULTIMATE TRACK OF FELIX. MODEL TRACK FORECASTS REFLECT THIS AND ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS...THE BAM AND AVN SHOW A SUBTLE BEND FROM N BACK TOWARD NNW... WHILE THE GFDL AND NHC90 BECOME NNE. VBAR TURNS EVEN MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH EVENTUAL ACCELERATION. IN THE INTERIM...ALL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATE FELIX WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. LITTLE SHEAR IS FORECAST AND PLENTY OF WARM WATER LIES AHEAD. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 23.5N 59.7W 95 KTS 12HR VT 12/1800Z 24.7N 61.4W 100 KTS 24HR VT 13/0600Z 26.5N 63.3W 105 KTS 36HR VT 13/1800Z 28.4N 64.0W 110 KTS 48HR VT 14/0600Z 30.4N 64.3W 110 KTS 72HR VT 15/0600Z 34.0N 64.0W 110 KTS NNNN