ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 1995 THE LARGE SIZE OF FELIX...COMBINED WITH ITS 12-KNOT FORWARD MOTION...MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT A PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING. IN ORDER TO ALLOW ADEQUATE TIME FOR PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES... IT IS NECESSARY TO POST HURRICANE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. THE HURRICANE IS WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND...EVEN THOUGH THE RECON DATA DO NOT INDICATE ANY STRENGTHENING YET...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE. THIS MORNINGS 500 AND 200 MB ANALYSES SHOW A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL MAINTAINS THIS GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH...IF THE MODEL VERIFIES...WOULD DISALLOW ANY RECURVATURE OF FELIX AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANIMATION OF THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST EAST OF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS ALSO WOULD APPEAR TO DISCOURAGE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN AND ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING OF FELIX. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 32.9N 68.1W 70 KTS 12HR VT 16/0000Z 33.5N 70.0W 75 KTS 24HR VT 16/1200Z 34.0N 72.7W 80 KTS 36HR VT 17/0000Z 35.0N 75.5W 85 KTS 48HR VT 17/1200Z 35.5N 78.0W 50 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 18/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 30 KTS...INLAND NNNN