ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 1995 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED A 14 NMI DIAMETER EYE AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN ESTABLISHED AND HAS YET TO MOVE OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT BASED ON BUOY AND SHIP DATA. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. NMC MODELS SUGGEST THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE A TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF FELIX. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AND ALL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS REFLECT THIS. IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL MOVES FELIX OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN DRIFTS THE HURRICANE OFF TO THE NORTH. THE NMC AVIATION MODEL SUGGESTS A LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN A DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FORECAST BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WHICH INDICATES THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE BUT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WEAKENS. IN ADDITION TO THE METEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS OF STORM SURGE AND WIND... THE ANTICIPATED SLOW DOWN IN FORWARD MOTION WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINS IN THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 33.8N 70.9W 70 KTS 12HR VT 16/1200Z 34.4N 72.9W 75 KTS 24HR VT 17/0000Z 34.8N 74.6W 85 KTS 36HR VT 17/1200Z 35.0N 76.3W 85 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 18/0000Z 35.2N 77.5W 50 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 19/0000Z 35.5N 79.0W 30 KTS...INLAND NNNN