ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 16 1995 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE STEERING CURRENTS BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A COL AREA AND TO BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE GFDL...VICBAR AND BAM MODELS ACTUALLY KEEP THE CENTER OFFSHORE BUT THIS IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH OF A CHANGE TO INCORPORATE INTO THIS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVIATION MODEL MAKING THE HURRICANE STATIONARY NEAR THE OUTER BANKS. LATEST RECON CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB AND THE MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IS 77 KNOTS AT 850 MB TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. USING THE 80 PERCENT RULE...I COULD DOWNGRADE FELIX TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT 967 MB IS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO DO THAT WITH CONFIDENCE. THE 41001 DATA BUOY REPORTED 33 KNOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME AT 04Z WHICH IMPLIES A GALE RADIUS OF 125 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER AND I WILL USE A CONSERVATIVE 150 MILE RADIUS TO THE WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER...NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE WAS AN EYE ONLY A FEW HOURS AGO. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 34.4N 72.0W 70 KTS 12HR VT 16/1800Z 34.8N 73.7W 70 KTS 24HR VT 17/0600Z 35.4N 75.4W 70 KTS 36HR VT 17/1800Z 36.0N 75.5W 65 KTS 48HR VT 18/0600Z 36.0N 75.5W 60 KTS 72HR VT 19/0600Z 36.0N 75.5W 55 KTS NNNN