ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 1995 LATEST HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 985 MB...AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED WIND FIELD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION IN A BAND FAIRLY WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. FELIX IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 48 HOURS. FELIX MOVED TOWARD THE WNW FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING...BUT BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 350/06. ALL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST TRACK UPDATES THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP LAYER BAM AND THE GFDL. ON OUR PRESENT TRACK FELIX WOULD COME CLOSE TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE COD AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER ...A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF OUR TRACK COULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH BEING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER TONIGHT. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 36.3N 68.3W 60 KTS 12HR VT 21/0600Z 37.3N 68.6W 60 KTS 24HR VT 21/1800Z 39.0N 67.0W 55 KTS 36HR VT 22/0600Z 42.5N 61.0W 55 KTS 48HR VT 22/1800Z 47.0N 52.0W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 23/1800Z 55.5N 33.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN