Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets
Author(s)
Rogelj, Joeri
Forster, Piers M
Kriegler, Elmar
Smith, Christopher J
Seferian, Roland
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Research reported during the past decade has shown that global warming is roughly proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. This makes it possible to estimate the remaining carbon budget: the total amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide that can still be emitted into the atmosphere while holding the global average temperature increase to the limit set by the Paris Agreement. However, a wide range of estimates for the remaining carbon budget has been reported, reducing the effectiveness of the remaining carbon budget as a means of setting emission reduction targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. Here we present a framework that enables us to track estimates of the remaining carbon budget and to understand how these estimates can improve over time as scientific knowledge advances. We propose that application of this framework may help to reconcile differences between estimates of the remaining carbon budget and may provide a basis for reducing uncertainty in the range of future estimates.
Date Issued
2019-07-18
Date Acceptance
2019-05-16
Citation
Nature, 2019, 571 (7765), pp.335-342
ISSN
0028-0836
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
335
End Page
342
Journal / Book Title
Nature
Volume
571
Issue
7765
Copyright Statement
© Springer Nature Limited 2019. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000475851900025&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
CUMULATIVE CO2 EMISSIONS
1.5 DEGREES-C
CYCLE MODELS
ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN
SIMPLER MODEL
PROPORTIONALITY
PATHWAYS
UNCERTAINTIES
CONSISTENT
FEEDBACKS
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-07-17