How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5

. 2020 Mar 21;395(10228):931-934.

doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5. Epub 2020 Mar 9.

How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

Roy M Anderson¹, Hans Heesterbeek², Don Klinkenberg³, T Déirdre Hollingsworth⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Health Analysis, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. Electronic address: [email protected].
² Department of Population Health Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
³ National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands.
⁴ Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

PMID: 32164834
PMCID: PMC7158572
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5

How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

Roy M Anderson et al. Lancet. 2020.

. 2020 Mar 21;395(10228):931-934.

doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5. Epub 2020 Mar 9.

Authors

Roy M Anderson¹, Hans Heesterbeek², Don Klinkenberg³, T Déirdre Hollingsworth⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Health Analysis, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. Electronic address: [email protected].
² Department of Population Health Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
³ National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, Netherlands.
⁴ Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

PMID: 32164834
PMCID: PMC7158572
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5

No abstract available

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

**Figure**
Illustrative simulations of a transmission model of COVID-19 A baseline simulation with case isolation only (red); a simulation with social distancing in place throughout the epidemic, flattening the curve (green), and a simulation with more effective social distancing in place for a limited period only, typically followed by a resurgent epidemic when social distancing is halted (blue). These are not quantitative predictions but robust qualitative illustrations for a range of model choices.

See this image and copyright information in PMC

Cited by

Adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures and associated factors among pregnant women in Ghana.
Apanga PA, Kumbeni MT. Apanga PA, et al. Trop Med Int Health. 2021 Jun;26(6):656-663. doi: 10.1111/tmi.13566. Epub 2021 Mar 15. Trop Med Int Health. 2021. PMID: 33638230 Free PMC article.
Public Compliance With Social Distancing Measures and SARS-CoV-2 Spread : A Quantitative Analysis of 5 States.
Liu H, Chen C, Cruz-Cano R, Guida JL, Lee M. Liu H, et al. Public Health Rep. 2021 Jul-Aug;136(4):475-482. doi: 10.1177/00333549211011254. Epub 2021 Apr 28. Public Health Rep. 2021. PMID: 33909541 Free PMC article.
Fluctuations in National Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Kimhi S, Eshel Y, Marciano H, Adini B. Kimhi S, et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Apr 7;18(8):3876. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18083876. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021. PMID: 33917101 Free PMC article.
Cardiorespiratory fitness and depression symptoms among adults during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cooper Center Longitudinal Study.
Shuval K, Leonard D, DeFina LF, Barlow CE, Drope J, Amir O, Gneezy A, Tzafrir S, Chartier KG, Qadan M. Shuval K, et al. Prev Med Rep. 2022 Dec;30:102065. doi: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2022.102065. Epub 2022 Nov 21. Prev Med Rep. 2022. PMID: 36439400 Free PMC article.
Global Research on Pandemics or Epidemics and Mental Health: A Natural Language Processing Study.
Ye X, Wang X, Lin H. Ye X, et al. J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2024 Sep;14(3):1268-1280. doi: 10.1007/s44197-024-00284-8. Epub 2024 Aug 8. J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2024. PMID: 39117794 Free PMC article.

See all "Cited by" articles

References

1. WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—44. March 4, 2020. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).
1. Imperial College London, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis News / COVID-19—report 3: transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. 2020. Feb 21, 2010. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news–w... (accessed March 5, 2020).
1. Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2004;101:6146–6151. - PMC - PubMed
1. WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation report—30. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).
1. Li L, Wong JY, Wu P, Bond HS, Lau EH, Sullivan SG, Cowling BJ. Heterogeneity in estimates of the impact of influenza on population mortality: a systematic review. Am J Epidemiol. 2018;187:378–388. - PMC - PubMed

MeSH terms

Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions
Actions

Grants and funding

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources
Other Literature Sources
- The Lens - Patent Citations Database

[1] WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—44. March 4, 2020. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[2] WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—44. March 4, 2020. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[3] Imperial College London, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis News / COVID-19—report 3: transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. 2020. Feb 21, 2010. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news–w... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[4] Imperial College London, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis News / COVID-19—report 3: transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. 2020. Feb 21, 2010. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news–w... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[5] Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2004;101:6146–6151. - PMC - PubMed

[6] Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2004;101:6146–6151. - PMC - PubMed

[7] WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation report—30. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[8] WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation report—30. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/2... (accessed March 5, 2020).

[9] Li L, Wong JY, Wu P, Bond HS, Lau EH, Sullivan SG, Cowling BJ. Heterogeneity in estimates of the impact of influenza on population mortality: a systematic review. Am J Epidemiol. 2018;187:378–388. - PMC - PubMed

[10] Li L, Wong JY, Wu P, Bond HS, Lau EH, Sullivan SG, Cowling BJ. Heterogeneity in estimates of the impact of influenza on population mortality: a systematic review. Am J Epidemiol. 2018;187:378–388. - PMC - PubMed

Save citation to file

Email citation

Add to Collections

Add to My Bibliography

Your saved search

Create a file for external citation management software

Your RSS Feed

How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

Affiliations

How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

Authors

Affiliations

Figures

Similar articles

Cited by

References

MeSH terms

Grants and funding

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Other Literature Sources