Assessment of methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas supply chain

doi:10.1126/science.aar7204

. 2018 Jul 13;361(6398):186-188.

doi: 10.1126/science.aar7204. Epub 2018 Jun 21.

Assessment of methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas supply chain

Ramón A Alvarez¹, Daniel Zavala-Araiza², David R Lyon², David T Allen³, Zachary R Barkley⁴, Adam R Brandt⁵, Kenneth J Davis⁴, Scott C Herndon⁶, Daniel J Jacob⁷, Anna Karion⁸, Eric A Kort⁹, Brian K Lamb¹⁰, Thomas Lauvaux⁴, Joannes D Maasakkers⁷, Anthony J Marchese¹¹, Mark Omara², Stephen W Pacala¹², Jeff Peischl^{13

14}, Allen L Robinson¹⁵, Paul B Shepson¹⁶, Colm Sweeney¹⁴, Amy Townsend-Small¹⁷, Steven C Wofsy⁷, Steven P Hamburg²

Affiliations

¹ Environmental Defense Fund, Austin, TX, USA. [email protected].
² Environmental Defense Fund, Austin, TX, USA.
³ University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
⁴ The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
⁵ Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
⁶ Aerodyne Research Inc., Billerica, MA, USA.
⁷ Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
⁸ National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, USA.
⁹ University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
¹⁰ Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA.
¹¹ Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
¹² Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
¹³ University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO, USA.
¹⁴ NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA.
¹⁵ Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
¹⁶ Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
¹⁷ University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, USA.

PMID: 29930092
PMCID: PMC6223263
DOI: 10.1126/science.aar7204

Assessment of methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas supply chain

Ramón A Alvarez et al. Science. 2018.

. 2018 Jul 13;361(6398):186-188.

doi: 10.1126/science.aar7204. Epub 2018 Jun 21.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Environmental Defense Fund, Austin, TX, USA. [email protected].
² Environmental Defense Fund, Austin, TX, USA.
³ University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
⁴ The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
⁵ Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
⁶ Aerodyne Research Inc., Billerica, MA, USA.
⁷ Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
⁸ National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, USA.
⁹ University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
¹⁰ Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA.
¹¹ Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
¹² Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
¹³ University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO, USA.
¹⁴ NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA.
¹⁵ Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
¹⁶ Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
¹⁷ University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, USA.

PMID: 29930092
PMCID: PMC6223263
DOI: 10.1126/science.aar7204

Abstract

Methane emissions from the U.S. oil and natural gas supply chain were estimated by using ground-based, facility-scale measurements and validated with aircraft observations in areas accounting for ~30% of U.S. gas production. When scaled up nationally, our facility-based estimate of 2015 supply chain emissions is 13 ± 2 teragrams per year, equivalent to 2.3% of gross U.S. gas production. This value is ~60% higher than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency inventory estimate, likely because existing inventory methods miss emissions released during abnormal operating conditions. Methane emissions of this magnitude, per unit of natural gas consumed, produce radiative forcing over a 20-year time horizon comparable to the CO₂ from natural gas combustion. Substantial emission reductions are feasible through rapid detection of the root causes of high emissions and deployment of less failure-prone systems.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: none declared.

Figures

**Figure 1.**
Comparison of this work’s bottom-up (BU) estimates of methane emissions from oil and natural gas (O/NG) sources to top-down (TD) estimates in nine U.S. O/NG production areas. (O/NG) sources to top-down (TD) estimates in nine U.S. O/NG production areas. A: relative differences of the TD and BU mean emissions, normalized by the TD value, rank ordered by natural gas production in billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d, where 1 bcf = 2.8 × 10⁷ m³). Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. B: distributions of the 9-basin sum of TD and BU mean estimates (blue and orange probability density, respectively). Neither the ensemble of TD-BU pairs (A) nor the 9-basin sum of means (B) are statistically different (p=0.13 by a randomization test, and mean difference of 11% [95% confidence interval of −17% to 41%]).

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References

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[1] Myhre G, Shindell D, Bréon F-M, Collins W, Fuglestvedt J, Huang J, et al., in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2013; https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL...).

[2] Myhre G, Shindell D, Bréon F-M, Collins W, Fuglestvedt J, Huang J, et al., in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2013; https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL...).

[3] Shoemaker JK, Schrag DP, Molina MJ, Ramanathan V, What Role for Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in Mitigation Policy? Science. 342, 1323–1324 (2013). - PubMed

[4] Shoemaker JK, Schrag DP, Molina MJ, Ramanathan V, What Role for Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in Mitigation Policy? Science. 342, 1323–1324 (2013). - PubMed

[5] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Annual Energy Outlook 2017” (EIA, 2017), (available at https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/).

[6] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Annual Energy Outlook 2017” (EIA, 2017), (available at https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/).

[7] Howarth RW, Santoro R, Ingraffea A, Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations: A letter. Climatic Change. 106, 679–690 (2011).

[8] Howarth RW, Santoro R, Ingraffea A, Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations: A letter. Climatic Change. 106, 679–690 (2011).

[9] Alvarez RA, Pacala SW, Winebrake JJ, Chameides WL, Hamburg SP, Greater focus needed on methane leakage from natural gas infrastructure. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109, 6435–6440 (2012). - PMC - PubMed

[10] Alvarez RA, Pacala SW, Winebrake JJ, Chameides WL, Hamburg SP, Greater focus needed on methane leakage from natural gas infrastructure. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109, 6435–6440 (2012). - PMC - PubMed

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Assessment of methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas supply chain

Affiliations

Assessment of methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas supply chain

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

Figures

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References

Publication types

Grants and funding

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